Much Worse than the 1970’s

Niall Ferguson outlines the comparison from the 1970’s and says it could be worse this time around. He outlines the following key points as to why he comes to that conclusion:

1. Energy shock from the Russian/Ukraine conflict is going to be more sustained
2. Productivity growth is worse than the 1970’s
3. Levels of debt are higher than the 1970’s
4. Demographics are much worse relative to the 1970’s
5. Relations between the world’s super powers were much better in the 1970’s

You can watch the full video interview below:

Niall says “Europe is certainly entering recession” and in regards to China, the CCP “…now prioritizes political power over economic growth.” He goes on: “The legitimacy that the party’s enjoyed for decades on the basis of growth could very well fade away.” If this occurs, Niall suggests China could very well enter a phase of hyper-nationalism. The breakdown of globalism, and furthermore increasing geopolitical uncertainty, all sounds very inflationary to me.