US metallurgical coal producer Warrior Met Coal ($HCC) reports Q3 results Wednesday (Nov 4) after the close. Bloomberg consensus going in: revenue $508.2M, Adj EBITDA $151.0M, EPS $1.39.
Our model lands a little light on revenue but ahead on everything after. That’s a decent quarter, but this one won’t prove to be the interesting one…
PLV rallied $29/t through Q3 and HCC barely saw it, because the move came late and won’t be well reflected in the quarterly averages. Rather, Q4 is where that rally – and a more substantial move in US HVA – actually hits Warrior’s P&L.
So the question for the call is less about PLV than about whether Blue Creek can finally turn a stronger HVA market into realized price…
