Core Natural Resources ($CNR) reports Q3 results Thursday (Nov 5) before the open, with the call at 10am ET. Bloomberg consensus going in: revenue $1,130.3M, Adj EBITDA $205.0M, adjusted NI $37.8M and EPS $0.78.
Our model is ahead on the top half and in line below it. Either way it’s not a big call, and it isn’t built on prices. API2 rallied, but CNR’s thermal book was priced long beforehand, so Q3 is a volume-and-cost quarter. The Pennsylvania Mining Complex (PAMC) produced about a million tons less than in Q2, PRB came back from a terrible spring, and based on productivity data we think the Leer complex keeps met costs in the mid-$80s. One framing worth keeping handy: at Q3’s run-rate of D&A, net interest and pension costs, Adj EBITDA of roughly $180M is where CNR stops making money below the line. Consensus has it about $25M clear of that, and we…well, we’ll tell you below!
