Peabody ($BTU) reports Q3 results Wednesday (Nov 4) before the open, with the call at 10am CT. Bloomberg consensus going in: revenue $1,025.0M, Adj EBITDA $108.8M, EPS -$0.11. Our model is well ahead on every line, but that is just because we’re taking management’s Q3 guide at face value, and after two straight misses the Street isn’t.
Peabody carries roughly $125M a quarter of D&A, ARO and interest, so as it turns out, Adj EBITDA of about $130M is the line between a profit and a loss. Hit the guide and Q3 clears it comfortably.
Miss the way Q1 and Q2 missed and…well, then consensus is right and the quarter posts a loss…
