Falling coking coal prices push downward pressure on met coke prices
Chinese coke market accepts sixth price cut, anticipates seventh reduction
Indian met coke prices have been recorded at INR 33,500/tonne (t) ex-Jajpur this week. Prices dropped by INR 500/t w-o-w. However, the deals have been concluded at levels below 33,000 levels too. Few mills have gone for a shutdown and production is as low as 1,000 tonne (t) per month owing to low purchasing interest by steel mills. Imported met coke prices are still at INR 2,500-3,000/t inexpensive compared to the domestic material.
Hence, end users are preferring the imported material. The buying levels for coking coal remained subdued as the levels have been falling in past weeks. Amid the falling coking coal prices, the met coke procurement remained on the lower side to witness the extent of drop in the coal market. As per talks with market participants, coking coal prices are expected to fall further which is inhibiting buying activities.
Coking coal offers
Australian premium hard coking coal prices dropped by 10% w-o-w to $245/t FOB and $264/ t CNF on 22 March, 2024 amid oversupply of material. The decline in Australian coking coal prices can be attributed to several factors affecting the steel and coal markets. Weak global steel demand, particularly in India and China, has led to decreased demand in spot markets, resulting in an oversupply situation. This oversupply has given end-users increased bargaining power, thereby exerting downward pressure on prices.
Imported coke prices
Chinese met coke prices are assessed at $335/t CNF India, for 65% CSR, CFR India. China’s met coke producers have accepted the sixth round of price cut on 20 March 2024 prompted by steel mills in Hebei and Shandong provinces facing depressed margins. Met coke prices in Hebei’s Tangshan were assessed at RMB 1,860/t ($257/t), a fall of RMB 200/t ($28/t) w-o-w.
China experienced a decline in coking coal and coke production due to weak steel demand and a decrease in pig iron production for the fourth consecutive month. Significant volumes of these raw materials remained unsold at the beginning of the last week. Local coke producers have recently implemented the sixth round of price cuts, with expectations of a seventh round in the near term. They are now considering reducing production and maintaining low inventories. Despite falling prices, Australian imports remained relatively expensive for Chinese buyers.
Pig iron market
Indian pig iron prices dropped by INR 100/t w-o-w and were assessed at INR 38,000/t DAP Durgapur on 22 March 2024. However, prices remained stable w-o-w in the Raipur market and are currently assessed at INR 37,150/t DAP- Raipur.
Outlook
The met coke prices may fall further amid falling coking coal prices and low buying activities by end users. The demand for steel remained subdued, pressing down prices further. In days to come, met coke market appears to be dull and downward trending on continued falling coking coal market.
Source: Bigmint
