
Updated Met Comps (EV/EBITDA & FCF Yield)
In light of the Ramaco 2024 Guidance Update, I updated my metallurgical coal price deck and valuations for each of the US met producers.

In light of the Ramaco 2024 Guidance Update, I updated my metallurgical coal price deck and valuations for each of the US met producers.


I spent some time updating metallurgical producer financial models today, so this will be a chart heavy post.

Alpha reported net income of $6.65 per share, surpassing analysts’ estimates but that’s mainly due to the buybacks making less shares.

Earnings schedule: Warrior earnings later today following the market close at 4:30 pm ET. Alpha earnings tomorrow morning, before the bell.

Alpha announced preliminary sales volumes and realizations for Q3 2023, and revised full year 2023 guidance.

Alpha Met reported preliminary sales volumes and realizations for Q3 2023 along with revised full-year 2023 guidance.

Now that I’ve wrapped up the forecasts for the US met producers, I figured I would share it here so that we can compare and contrast.

US metallurgical producers comparison of costs and profit margins to get a sense of their inherent competitive advantages.

The market had a positive reaction to Alpha’s earnings, up 8% on the day in sharp contract to Warrior’s earnings reaction, which was down 11%.

Earnings summaries for Alpha Metallurgical Resource (AMR) and Natural Resource Partners (NRP)

With most of the Q2 2023 MSHA coal production numbers in, I think its time to look under the hood and see what’s going on.