Key points:
- Production: China’s metallurgical coke production reached an estimated 490 million mt in 2023, up 3.6% from 2022.
- Supply: While new coking capacity is expected to rise in 2024, old capacity elimination will lead to a net increase of only 14.06 million mt.
- Demand: Overall profit for the coking industry is anticipated to be low in 2024 due to increased coke production and expected rise in coke supply.
- Reasons for low profit:
- Increased coke production from new and existing capacity.
- Weaker coal prices leading to lower cost of imported coke, putting pressure on domestic prices.
- Future outlook:
- Despite a slight increase in coke consumption driven by factors like central heating expansion, overall demand is expected to be muted due to continued growth in non-fossil energy sources.
Additional details:
- Specific events within 2023 that impacted the coke market: declining coke prices and increased imports from Indonesia, Japan, and Mongolia.
- Fenwei, a research institute, is cited as the source for the production and consumption figures.
Overall, analysts predict a challenging year for China’s coking industry in 2024, with increased production and subdued demand leading to lower profits.
