
Peabody Post-Earnings Thoughts
I’m starting to change my outlook on BTU from bad to better.

I’m starting to change my outlook on BTU from bad to better.

Things I got wrong… Erroneous items I failed to anticipate… Going forward and the investment thesis.

HCC is set to release earnings tomorrow (Aug. 2) after the bell.

In terms of Chinese economic growth and steel demand, here’s what we know.

I had lunch with a met producer sales guy yesterday and while discussing the upcoming domestic sales negotiating season, he mentioned that met buyers (North American end-users) seemingly “have all the power.”

With most of the Q2 2023 MSHA coal production numbers in, I think its time to look under the hood and see what’s going on.

Herewith a few points really quick to give you something to chew on in preparation for earnings season in regards to METC, ARCH & BTU.



Thermal coal markets have high inventories and are experiencing increased demand during the summer cooling season in the northern hemisphere.

Let’s discuss Alpa (AMR) vs Arch (ARCH) and Warrior Met (HCC)

With Australian PLV trading at a premium to CFR China, the arbitrage for Australian coal into China remains firmly closed.