
Seaborne Thermal Warning
This cycle has been different for investors due to the extraordinary profit margins that existed for over a year.

This cycle has been different for investors due to the extraordinary profit margins that existed for over a year.

Peabody Energy is one of the more difficult coal names to wrap your arms around in terms of their segments and coal assets around the world

Since sending out the alert yesterday, I’ve gone through the earnings call transcript and tinkered with the numbers a bit more.

As the earnings call is just getting started, I just wanted to share I high conviction thought with you:

Earnings is tough to trade. It’s like betting against the spread in NFL or NCAA Football games, and Vegas is very smart and typically spot on.

The primary risk for Alliance continues to be the coming demand destruction in power generation markets in the US.

The BMA acquisition is expected to be completed on April 2, 2024. I continue to believe this acquisition will prove to be a transformational

Let’s start with the big overall trend, and for that we need to think in terms of thermal coal, generally when discussing US coal production.

Now that I’m back from vacation, it’s time for some equity upgrades. Last week turned out NOT to be a quiet week in the coal sector.

This northern hemisphere winter has been mild overall, and most of 2024 could be wrecked by high inventories, leading to subdued demand

Met prices are driven primarily by China, then marginally by other regional demand sources, so let’s start there

Benchmark PLV prices have been recently consolidating above $300/mt. Cyclone Jasper caused a price spike to $335 early in its development