Here at TCT we’ve been following vessel tracking data and talking about how September would be a good month for Chinese coal import volumes. That’s giving us some confidence that the international thermal coal markets have turned a corner (at least in Asia Pac).
Official import data is now out and confirms that China’s coal imports rose to a nine-month high in September. Imports totaled 46 million metric tonnes (mt), which was just a couple million tonnes below all-time highs. See the CNIVCOAL Index below (right-hand axis) for Chinese monthly total coal imports. The chart also includes iron ore imports on the left-hand axis.
The main driver of higher imports is rising domestic thermal coal prices, which are trading around the US$100/mt level at Qinhuangdao, the main delivery point for railcars of Chinese thermal coal produced in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia that are then shipped down China’s east coast to power plants. Rising Qinhuangdao prices opened the “arbitrage window” for international seaborne thermal coals to undercut prices for domestic Chinese material.
TCT has also been tracking coal production cuts in China and we have reported that these are impacting the Chinese market. A September investigation by Chinese authorities showed that 15 mines in Inner Mongolia exceeded their approved capacity by more than 10% in 1H 2025. The mines were ordered to suspend operations and can resume only after re-inspection by regional safety regulators. Those mines represent annual capacity of about 35 million mt, but around 15 million mt has already restarted after a week or so hiatus, so the total capacity cut from the market amounts to around 20 million mt. Central authorities in Beijing also demanded that Shanxi province authorities strengthen supervision of coal production, which is impacting output.
Over the first nine months of this year, China’s coal imports (met and thermal) fell 11% y/y to 346 million mt, according to the official data. But strong power demand this summer and the opening of the thermal coal arbitrage window means that the Chinese thermal coal market has likely turned a corner.
– TCT
